The New Strategic Arena: AI and Geopolitics

Artificial intelligence has rapidly transitioned from an emerging technology into a central domain of geopolitical competition. This brief explores the geopolitical consequences of frontier AI development across three interconnected pillars: technical capabilities, technology controls alongside physical constraints, and AI-driven nation-state cyber operations.

Join Ryan Grace, Geopolitical Analyst II at Intel 471, as he breaks down:

• U.S.-China Strategic Rivalry: How distinct model architectures, compute scaling capacities, and talent concentrations shape each nation's technical capabilities. Additionally, how supply chain constraints — encompassing technical infrastructure and trade controls — will heavily influence future progress.
• The Rise of Sovereign AI: How middle powers in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa are navigating tensions between the U.S. and China to build sovereign AI capabilities and reduce external reliance.
• Evolving Cyber Threat Landscape: How nation-state threat actors use AI to create malware, conduct reconnaissance and targeted research, and optimize social engineering campaigns.

Ryan will unpack the intersecting dimensions of AI policy and advancement, offering a framework for understanding the evolving national security, economic, and operational risks of the AI era.